Domino's Pizza (Domino's Pizza) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $412.40 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Domino's Pizza Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Domino's Pizza's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $412.40.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Domino's Pizza's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Domino's Pizza is -21.02%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Domino's Pizza's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

DPZ' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.44 Med: 0.94 Max: 2.65
Current: 1.21

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Domino's Pizza was 2.65. The lowest was 0.44. And the median was 0.94.

DPZ's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked better than
71.43% of 28 companies
in the Restaurants industry
Industry Median: 1.68 vs DPZ: 1.21

Domino's Pizza Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Domino's Pizza's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Domino's Pizza Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Domino's Pizza Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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362.79

866.58

503.01

367.77

454.10

Domino's Pizza Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															367.77	380.47	388.09	389.77	454.10

Competitive Comparison of Domino's Pizza's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Restaurants subindustry, Domino's Pizza's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Domino's Pizza's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Domino's Pizza's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Domino's Pizza's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Domino's Pizza Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Domino's Pizza's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20.00%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $13.1967.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Domino's Pizza's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

13.1967

31.2501

412.40

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(412.4	-	499.07)	/	412.4
	=	-21.02 %

Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Domino's Pizza Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Domino's Pizza (Domino's Pizza) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Domino's Pizza Inc (NYSE:DPZ) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DPZ:Mexico EZV:Germany EZV:Germany D2PZ34:Brazil DPZ:Austria

Address

30 Frank Lloyd Wright Drive, Ann Arbor, MI, USA, 48105

Website

https://www.dominos.com

Domino's is a restaurant operator and franchiser with nearly 20,000 global stores across more than 90 international markets at the end of 2022. The firm generates revenue through the sales of pizza, wings, salads, sandwiches, and desserts at company-owned stores, royalty and marketing contributions from franchise-operated stores, and its network of 26 domestic (and five Canadian) dough manufacturing and supply chain facilities, which centralize purchasing, preparation, and last-mile delivery for the firm's U.S. and Canadian restaurants. With roughly $17.7 billion in 2022 system sales, Domino's is the largest player in the global pizza market, ahead of Pizza Hut, Little Caesars, and Papa John's.

Executives

Sam Jackson	officer: EVP, Human Resources	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Andy Ballard	director	ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 1350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Lisa V Price	officer: EVP, Chief Human Resources Ofc	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Cynthia A Headen	officer: EVP, Supply Chain Services	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Andrew Balson	director, 10 percent owner
Patricia E Lopez	director	333 LUDLOW ST, STAMFORD CT 06902
Joseph Hugh Jordan	officer: EVP, International	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
James A Goldman	director
Reddy Sandeep	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 SOUTH ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Russell J Weiner	officer: President, Domino's U.S.A.	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Jessica L Parrish	officer: VP, Treasurer, Corp Controller	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Allison Richard E Jr	officer: President, Domino's Int'l	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Kevin Scott Morris	officer: EVP, Gen'l Counsel, Secretary	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Diana F Cantor	director	9201 FOREST HILL AVENUE, RICHMOND VA 23235
Timothy P. Mcintyre	officer: EVP, Comm, Investor Relations	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105